Elections 1 min read
Newsom vs Harris 2028 Poll: Markets Disagree With Polls
Polymarket has Gavin Newsom at 26% for the 2028 Democratic nomination; AOC and Kamala Harris tied at 8%. The Newsom vs Harris 2028 poll gap explained.
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17 pieces of independent analysis.
Sports 1 min read
Ballon d'Or Odds 2026: Harry Kane Leads at 40%, Olise Surges
Polymarket prices Harry Kane as the 2026 Ballon d'Or favorite at 40%, with Bayern teammate Michael Olise at 15.5%. Mbappé and Yamal trail. The World Cup is the wildcard.
Elections 1 min read
Will China Invade Taiwan? Markets Price 7.5%
Polymarket prices the chance China will invade Taiwan by end of 2026 at 7.5%, with $23M+ traded. The price curve and intelligence reads explained.
Platform Guides 1 min read
How to Read a Prediction Market: A Practical Guide
A practical guide to reading prediction-market prices: what a percentage means, how resolution works, what volume tells you, and the misreadings that cost real money.
Platform Guides 1 min read
Is Polymarket Legal in the US? The Honest Answer
Polymarket is geofenced from US residents and not legal at the retail level. The CFTC settled with Polymarket in 2022. Here is what that means for US users in 2026.
Sports 1 min read
NBA Awards 2025-26: How the Markets Called Most Improved Player and Sixth Man
Alexander-Walker won Most Improved Player at -1250 closing odds. Keldon Johnson took Sixth Man. How prediction markets nailed the calls — and what MVP odds say next.
Economy 1 min read
Next Fed Rate Cut: Markets Now Price December
Polymarket prices the April FOMC at 100% no-change, June at 94%, and a 41% chance of zero rate cuts in 2026. The next Fed rate cut, if any, is a December event.
Platform Guides 1 min read
Polymarket Stock: IPO, Valuation & How to Invest
Polymarket stock isn't publicly traded. The private company was last valued at $11.6B. What we know about a Polymarket IPO and pre-IPO access paths.
Platform Guides 1 min read
Are Prediction Markets Accurate? The Track Record, in Numbers
Prediction markets have outperformed individual polls on most US elections since 2008. The calibration data, head-to-head studies, and what the record shows.
Platform Guides 1 min read
Prediction Markets vs Sportsbooks: How They Actually Differ
Prediction markets and sportsbooks both let you bet on outcomes, but the pricing model, payout structure, and accuracy track records are entirely different. A practical comparison.
Economy 1 min read
Chance of Recession in 2026: Markets Price 25.5%
Polymarket prices the chance of recession in 2026 at 25.5%. The yield curve says one thing, the labor market says another. Why the gap matters.
Elections 1 min read
Russia Ukraine Ceasefire Odds: What Markets Actually Price
Polymarket prices a Russia Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 at 0.5%, by year-end at 26%. The gap between headlines and markets tells you what traders believe.
Elections 1 min read
Texas Senate Polls 2026: Paxton Leads GOP Runoff at 60%
Polymarket prices Paxton at 60% in the Texas GOP Senate runoff vs. Cornyn. Republicans sit at 56% in the November general. Polls and markets agree.
Platform Guides 1 min read
The UMA Oracle, Explained: How Polymarket Resolves Markets
Polymarket markets resolve through UMA's optimistic oracle. How the dispute, challenge, and DVM-vote process actually works — and why it sometimes goes wrong.
Elections 1 min read
Will Trump Resign? Markets Price 15.5% by 2027
Polymarket prices the chance Trump leaves office before 2027 at 15.5%, with impeachment odds at 13%. The price stack and constitutional barriers explained.
Platform Guides 1 min read
Kalshi vs. Polymarket: Which Platform Should You Use?
Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and US-legal; Polymarket is on-chain and global. The differences in liquidity, resolution sources, and available markets are bigger than they appear.
Platform Guides 1 min read
Polymarket, Explained: How Prediction Markets Actually Work
A plain-English guide to Polymarket — how shares are priced, what the percentages really mean, how resolution works, and the most common misreadings traders make.