The 2025-26 NBA awards season has resolved the cleanest set of individual contracts Polymarket has ever priced. Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s NBA Most Improved Player win (officially announced during NBA on Prime pregame coverage) closed at -1250 — an implied 92.59% probability. Keldon Johnson took the Kia Sixth Man of the Year, vindicating a market that priced him as a clear favorite for most of the back half of the season. Both calls landed exactly where the closing prices suggested.
Two contracts remain live: MVP, with a three-way race between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama, and Nikola Jokić, and Comeback Player of the Year, which has been the most open of the season-long award markets.
How the markets called the resolved awards
| Candidate | Implied | Prob. | Δ pp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Most Improved Player: Alexander-Walker (winner) | | 100% | — |
| MIP: Avdija (finalist) | | 0% | — |
| MIP: Duren (finalist) | | 0% | — |
| Sixth Man: Keldon Johnson (winner) | | 100% | — |
The Most Improved Player market is the textbook case for prediction-market efficiency on voted awards. Alexander-Walker’s stat line — 20.8 PPG and 1.3 SPG, up from 9.4 PPG and 43.8% FG% in 2024-25, plus eight more games played — was the kind of clean year-over-year delta that voters reward. Markets priced that signal weeks before the official announcement.
The active markets: MVP and Comeback Player
| Candidate | Implied | Prob. | Δ pp |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | | 60% | — |
| MVP: Victor Wembanyama | | 22% | — |
| MVP: Nikola Jokić | | 16% | — |
| Comeback Player: field price | | 40% | — |
The MVP case for SGA. Gilgeous-Alexander has a 10-game advantage in team wins over Denver, the kind of margin Ballot voters have historically used as the tiebreaker when stat lines are close. His scoring (32.4 PPG) is the highest in the NBA and his Thunder are the consensus 1-seed.
The case for Wembanyama. A two-way ceiling unmatched in the field. His Defensive Player of the Year case is essentially locked, and historically MVP voters give some weight to defensive impact. The 22% market price reflects an ~85% chance SGA wins given his win-margin lead.
The case for Jokić. Three-time MVP voter fatigue is real but reverses cleanly when the underlying production is undeniable. Jokić’s triple-double rate and on-court efficiency are first-percentile; the 16% price prices voter narrative over voter math.
Reading the Sixth Man and Comeback Player markets
Keldon Johnson winning Sixth Man of the Year vindicates the season-long market price. His role in San Antonio’s bench rotation — high-volume scoring with sustained efficiency — is the canonical Sixth Man profile, and markets correctly identified him weeks before voting closed.
The Comeback Player of the Year contract has been the most volatile award market this season, with no single candidate above 40% probability at any point. That reflects the structural ambiguity of “comeback” — voters split between players returning from injury and players returning from down seasons. Stay-tuned reads of this market are a good lesson in why some voted-award contracts are inherently noisier than others.
What this season reveals about award markets
Three takeaways for traders.
The 65-game rule has improved market accuracy. Eligibility uncertainty used to be the largest mispricing source on NBA awards. The hard 65-game rule has compressed the eligibility distribution and let markets focus on actual production.
Voter fatigue prices in early. When markets price a three-time winner like Jokić below 20% despite the production case, that is voter-fatigue beta showing up. Traders who can model voter-narrative cycles have an edge.
Late-season finishes matter for MIP and Sixth Man more than for MVP. MVP voting tends to lock in by All-Star break; MIP and Sixth Man see meaningful late-season swings. The MIP price actually shifted three times after February 2026.
For traders coming from our Ballon d’Or odds breakdown, the structural similarity is worth noting — both are voted awards with international media bodies, both reward sustained narrative as much as raw stats, and both have late-cycle catalysts that can re-rate the contract overnight.
How to use these markets going forward
For traders, the most actionable signal is the relative-value spread between the MVP candidates. SGA at 60% with Jokić at 16% implies traders see roughly 4-to-1 odds against Jokić; if voter-fatigue beta unwinds (which it occasionally does in the final week of voting), that ratio compresses and Jokić becomes the better-priced bet.
For new readers, our Polymarket explained primer walks through how voted-award markets resolve and what to watch for in the final weeks of voting.
Common questions
Who won the 2025-26 NBA Most Improved Player?
Nickeil Alexander-Walker of the Atlanta Hawks. Polymarket priced him at 92.59% closing implied probability. His stat line jumped from 9.4 PPG and 43.8% FG% in 2024-25 to 20.8 PPG and 1.3 SPG in 2025-26.
Who won Sixth Man of the Year?
Keldon Johnson of the San Antonio Spurs received the John Havlicek Trophy as the 2025-26 Kia NBA Sixth Man of the Year, matching the Polymarket favorite for most of the second half of the season.
What are the MVP odds?
Polymarket prices Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the heavy favorite at roughly 60%, with Victor Wembanyama at 22% and Nikola Jokić at 16%. SGA's 10-game advantage in team wins over Denver is the dominant signal.
Who are the Comeback Player favorites?
The Comeback Player market has been the most open award contract of the season, with no single candidate above 40% probability at any point. Voters split between injury-return narratives and down-season-rebound narratives, keeping the market noisy.
How does the 65-game rule affect markets?
The 65-game rule introduced in the 2023-24 CBA disqualifies candidates who miss too many games. It has compressed eligibility uncertainty and improved market accuracy on individual awards across the board.
When are MVP and Comeback Player resolved?
Both are typically announced during the NBA Awards show in late June or during the NBA Finals broadcasts. Markets remain live until the official league announcement.
