Economy 1 min read
Next Fed Rate Cut: Markets Now Price December
Polymarket prices the April FOMC at 100% no-change, June at 94%, and a 41% chance of zero rate cuts in 2026. The next Fed rate cut, if any, is a December event.
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Independent analysis of economy prediction markets — what's moving, what's mispriced, and what to watch next.
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Economy 1 min read
Chance of Recession in 2026: Markets Price 25.5%
Polymarket prices the chance of recession in 2026 at 25.5%. The yield curve says one thing, the labor market says another. Why the gap matters.