In-depth analysis of prediction markets, elections, and event forecasting. The editorial layer Polymarket leaves out.https://thesharptake.com/en-ushttps://thesharptake.com/articles/2028-democratic-nominee-odds/https://thesharptake.com/articles/2028-democratic-nominee-odds/Polymarket has Gavin Newsom at 26% for the 2028 Democratic nomination; AOC and Kamala Harris tied at 8%. The Newsom vs Harris 2028 poll gap explained.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTelections2028democratic-primarynewsomharrisaocM. Sharpehttps://thesharptake.com/articles/ballon-dor-odds/https://thesharptake.com/articles/ballon-dor-odds/Polymarket prices Harry Kane as the 2026 Ballon d'Or favorite at 40%, with Bayern teammate Michael Olise at 15.5%. Mbappé and Yamal trail. The World Cup is the wildcard.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTsportsballon-dorfootballkaneyamalmbappeM. Sharpehttps://thesharptake.com/articles/china-taiwan-invasion-odds/https://thesharptake.com/articles/china-taiwan-invasion-odds/Polymarket prices the chance China will invade Taiwan by end of 2026 at 7.5%, with $23M+ traded. The price curve and intelligence reads explained.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTelectionschinataiwangeopoliticstail-riskM. Sharpehttps://thesharptake.com/articles/how-to-read-prediction-markets/https://thesharptake.com/articles/how-to-read-prediction-markets/A practical guide to reading prediction-market prices: what a percentage means, how resolution works, what volume tells you, and the misreadings that cost real money.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTplatform-guidespolymarketkalshigetting-startedmechanicsM. Sharpehttps://thesharptake.com/articles/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us/https://thesharptake.com/articles/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us/Polymarket is geofenced from US residents and not legal at the retail level. The CFTC settled with Polymarket in 2022. Here is what that means for US users in 2026.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTplatform-guidespolymarketlegalcftcusM. Sharpehttps://thesharptake.com/articles/nba-individual-awards-odds/https://thesharptake.com/articles/nba-individual-awards-odds/Alexander-Walker won Most Improved Player at -1250 closing odds. Keldon Johnson took Sixth Man. How prediction markets nailed the calls — and what MVP odds say next.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTsportsnbamvpmost-improvedsixth-manawardsM. Sharpehttps://thesharptake.com/articles/next-fed-rate-cut-odds/https://thesharptake.com/articles/next-fed-rate-cut-odds/Polymarket prices the April FOMC at 100% no-change, June at 94%, and a 41% chance of zero rate cuts in 2026. The next Fed rate cut, if any, is a December event.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTeconomyfedratesfomcmacroM. Sharpehttps://thesharptake.com/articles/polymarket-stock-ipo-explained/https://thesharptake.com/articles/polymarket-stock-ipo-explained/Polymarket stock isn't publicly traded. The private company was last valued at $11.6B. What we know about a Polymarket IPO and pre-IPO access paths.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTplatform-guidespolymarketipovaluationinvestingM. Sharpehttps://thesharptake.com/articles/prediction-market-accuracy-history/https://thesharptake.com/articles/prediction-market-accuracy-history/Prediction markets have outperformed individual polls on most US elections since 2008. The calibration data, head-to-head studies, and what the record shows.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTplatform-guidespolymarketkalshiaccuracyforecastingM. Sharpehttps://thesharptake.com/articles/prediction-markets-vs-sportsbooks/https://thesharptake.com/articles/prediction-markets-vs-sportsbooks/Prediction markets and sportsbooks both let you bet on outcomes, but the pricing model, payout structure, and accuracy track records are entirely different. A practical comparison.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTplatform-guidespolymarketkalshisportsbookscomparisonM. Sharpehttps://thesharptake.com/articles/recession-2026-odds/https://thesharptake.com/articles/recession-2026-odds/Polymarket prices the chance of recession in 2026 at 25.5%. The yield curve says one thing, the labor market says another. Why the gap matters.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTeconomyrecessionmacrofedyield-curveM. Sharpehttps://thesharptake.com/articles/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-odds/https://thesharptake.com/articles/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-odds/Polymarket prices a Russia Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 at 0.5%, by year-end at 26%. The gap between headlines and markets tells you what traders believe.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTelectionsrussiaukrainegeopoliticsceasefireM. Sharpehttps://thesharptake.com/articles/texas-senate-2026-odds/https://thesharptake.com/articles/texas-senate-2026-odds/Polymarket prices Paxton at 60% in the Texas GOP Senate runoff vs. Cornyn. Republicans sit at 56% in the November general. Polls and markets agree.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTelectionstexassenatepaxtoncornynmidtermsM. Sharpehttps://thesharptake.com/articles/uma-oracle-explained/https://thesharptake.com/articles/uma-oracle-explained/Polymarket markets resolve through UMA's optimistic oracle. How the dispute, challenge, and DVM-vote process actually works — and why it sometimes goes wrong.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTplatform-guidespolymarketumaoraclemechanicsM. Sharpehttps://thesharptake.com/articles/will-trump-resign-odds/https://thesharptake.com/articles/will-trump-resign-odds/Polymarket prices the chance Trump leaves office before 2027 at 15.5%, with impeachment odds at 13%. The price stack and constitutional barriers explained.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTelectionstrumpimpeachmentresignationus-politicsM. Sharpehttps://thesharptake.com/articles/kalshi-vs-polymarket/https://thesharptake.com/articles/kalshi-vs-polymarket/Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and US-legal; Polymarket is on-chain and global. The differences in liquidity, resolution sources, and available markets are bigger than they appear.Fri, 12 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMTplatform-guideskalshipolymarketcomparisonM. Sharpehttps://thesharptake.com/articles/polymarket-explained/https://thesharptake.com/articles/polymarket-explained/A plain-English guide to Polymarket — how shares are priced, what the percentages really mean, how resolution works, and the most common misreadings traders make.Tue, 04 Nov 2025 00:00:00 GMTplatform-guidespolymarketgetting-startedmechanicsM. Sharpe