Sourcing
Every market price we cite is sourced to the platform displaying it (Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, or Metaculus). Polling figures are sourced to the original pollster or a named aggregator (RealClearPolling, FiveThirtyEight, 270toWin). Quotes from public officials are sourced to the original outlet that recorded them.
We do not paraphrase market resolution criteria. When a contract's resolution rule matters to the analysis, we link to the live market page so readers can verify it.
Accuracy and corrections
Prediction-market prices move continuously. Numbers in our articles reflect the time of writing; we add an updated-date stamp whenever an article is materially revised. If we get a fact wrong, we correct the article in place, add a corrections note at the bottom, and credit the reader who flagged it (if they want to be credited).
Send corrections to hello@thesharptake.com. We aim to respond within 24 hours and post the correction within 48.
Independence
The Sharp Take is independent. We are not affiliated with Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, Metaculus, or any prediction-market operator. We do not accept money, equity, or other consideration from market operators in exchange for editorial coverage.
Conflicts of interest
When a writer holds a position in a market they cover, we disclose it in the article. We do not require writers to abstain from trading on markets they write about, but we expect them to disclose so readers can weigh it.
We participate in affiliate / referral programs with some platforms we cover. When an outbound link is a tracked affiliate link, we mark it as such or disclose the relationship in the article footer. Affiliate revenue does not influence which markets we choose to cover.
Not investment advice
Nothing on The Sharp Take is investment advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to trade. Prediction markets are speculative; you can lose every dollar you put into them. We publish editorial analysis, not trade signals. Readers are responsible for their own decisions.
Reader contact
Tips, corrections, pitches, complaints — all welcome at hello@thesharptake.com.