Elections 1 min read
Newsom vs Harris 2028 Poll: Markets Disagree With Polls
Polymarket has Gavin Newsom at 26% for the 2028 Democratic nomination; AOC and Kamala Harris tied at 8%. The Newsom vs Harris 2028 poll gap explained.
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Elections.
Independent analysis of elections prediction markets — what's moving, what's mispriced, and what to watch next.
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Elections 1 min read
Will China Invade Taiwan? Markets Price 7.5%
Polymarket prices the chance China will invade Taiwan by end of 2026 at 7.5%, with $23M+ traded. The price curve and intelligence reads explained.
Elections 1 min read
Russia Ukraine Ceasefire Odds: What Markets Actually Price
Polymarket prices a Russia Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 at 0.5%, by year-end at 26%. The gap between headlines and markets tells you what traders believe.
Elections 1 min read
Texas Senate Polls 2026: Paxton Leads GOP Runoff at 60%
Polymarket prices Paxton at 60% in the Texas GOP Senate runoff vs. Cornyn. Republicans sit at 56% in the November general. Polls and markets agree.
Elections 1 min read
Will Trump Resign? Markets Price 15.5% by 2027
Polymarket prices the chance Trump leaves office before 2027 at 15.5%, with impeachment odds at 13%. The price stack and constitutional barriers explained.