The question “will Trump resign” — or be removed before his term ends — has become the most actively priced political contract on Polymarket about the second Trump presidency. Traders assign a 15.5% probability that President Donald Trump is out as President of the United States before 2027, an 84.5% probability that he completes the calendar year. Impeachment by the House of Representatives by December 31, 2026 prices at 13%. The 25th Amendment removal contract prices below 5%.
The contract has notably not moved on a sequence of recent flashpoints — the April 25 White House Correspondents’ Dinner shooting incident, escalating Iran tensions, and Rep. John Larson’s introduction of articles of impeachment — and that lack of movement is itself the most informative signal.
The current price stack
| Candidate | Implied | Prob. | Δ pp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Out as President before 2027 | | 16% | — |
| Impeachment by December 31, 2026 | | 13% | — |
| 25th Amendment removal before 2027 | | 4% | — |
| Out as President by June 30, 2026 | | 5% | — |
| Impeachment before term ends (1/20/29) | | 65% | — |
The most interesting price on this board is the 65% probability of impeachment before Trump’s term ends. That is a long-window market and reflects the realistic chance Democrats win the House in 2026 and pursue impeachment as a procedural matter — not a near-term action signal.
Why removal is priced this low
Three structural barriers anchor the consensus.
House of Representatives Republican control. Articles of impeachment require a simple-majority vote in the House of Representatives. The 119th Congress, which sits through January 3, 2027, has a Republican majority. That math alone caps the impeachment-before-2027 price near where it sits, even when Trump’s approval ratings dip into the high-30s.
No 25th Amendment political appetite. The 25th Amendment requires the Vice President plus a majority of the Cabinet to declare the President incapacitated. With Vice President JD Vance and a Trump-appointed Cabinet, the political coordination to invoke is essentially absent. Markets reflect that, regardless of how the daily White House news cycle reads.
Resignation is historically rare. Only one US President has ever resigned. Markets typically anchor on base rates for one-of-its-kind events; resignation prices below 5% in any given quarter as the structural prior.
The April 25 incident. A shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner where President Trump was evacuated but quickly returned to address the nation did not move the contract. Markets read it as a security incident, not a removal-relevant event.
What the long-window contract reveals
The 65% impeachment-before-term-ends price is the most informative number on the board. It implies traders see an even-money-plus chance that:
- Democrats win the 2026 House.
- They pursue impeachment in 2027 or 2028.
- The Senate fails to convict (the base case given the supermajority threshold), but articles pass.
That is a politically realistic forecast, and it lines up with how the 2028 Democratic primary contract is pricing — a wide, fragmented field that benefits from prosecutorial energy against the second Trump term.
What would move the near-term price
Five catalysts that have historically moved removal-contracts by 3+ percentage points:
- A serious health event. Anything that triggers temporary 25th Amendment Section 3 transfer of power.
- A criminal indictment with imminent enforcement. Existing indictments are priced in; new ones with custody risk would not be.
- A Cabinet-level resignation cascade. Three or more senior resignations in a week have historically signaled deeper turmoil.
- A major-party defection. A handful of GOP senators publicly calling for resignation would tighten the path.
- Impeachment articles passing the House. Even with no Senate conviction, House passage would re-rate the entire stack.
How traders should use this market
For most readers, the most useful takeaway is the stability of the 15.5% price across volatile news cycles. Markets are absorbing each Trump-related controversy and re-resolving back to a similar number. That tells you the news flow is priced in — and that the structural barriers (House math, 25th Amendment math) are doing the work the daily news cannot.
If you are pricing related markets — the 2028 Democratic primary, the 2026 House contract, or the Vance-becomes-President contract — the 15.5% Trump-out probability is the load-bearing input. Almost every other related contract reprices when this one does.
For traders new to Polymarket’s resolution framework, our Polymarket explained primer covers what these prices represent and how disputes get resolved.
Common questions
Will Trump resign in 2026?
Polymarket prices the chance that Trump is out as President before 2027 — by resignation, impeachment, 25th Amendment removal, or death — at 15.5%. The June 30 cutoff prices at just 4.5%.
What are the impeachment odds?
Impeachment by December 31, 2026 prices at 13% on Polymarket. Impeachment any time before Trump's term ends in January 2029 prices at 65%, reflecting the chance Democrats take the House in 2026.
Why is the price low despite the news cycle?
House Republican control through the 119th Congress (January 3, 2027) caps near-term impeachment math. The 25th Amendment requires Cabinet coordination that is absent. Resignation is historically rare. Each near-term path faces a structural barrier markets price heavily.
Did the April 25 White House incident move the market?
No. The April 25 shooting incident at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, where Trump was evacuated but quickly returned, did not materially move the removal contract. Markets read security incidents as separate from removal-relevant catalysts.
What about the 25th Amendment?
Polymarket prices 25th Amendment removal before 2027 at under 5%. The Amendment requires the Vice President plus a Cabinet majority to invoke, which the current configuration of the executive branch makes politically implausible.
How does this compare to other Trump markets?
The "out before 2027" contract is the cleanest single price. Adjacent markets (impeachment, 25th Amendment, Vance becomes President) are sub-prices that should sum approximately to the headline number after accounting for cross-resolution.
