Independent analysis of platform guides prediction markets — what's moving, what's mispriced, and what to watch next.
A practical guide to reading prediction-market prices: what a percentage means, how resolution works, what volume tells you, and the misreadings that cost real money.
Polymarket is geofenced from US residents and not legal at the retail level. The CFTC settled with Polymarket in 2022. Here is what that means for US users in 2026.
Polymarket stock isn't publicly traded. The private company was last valued at $11.6B. What we know about a Polymarket IPO and pre-IPO access paths.
Prediction markets have outperformed individual polls on most US elections since 2008. The calibration data, head-to-head studies, and what the record shows.
Prediction markets and sportsbooks both let you bet on outcomes, but the pricing model, payout structure, and accuracy track records are entirely different. A practical comparison.
Polymarket markets resolve through UMA's optimistic oracle. How the dispute, challenge, and DVM-vote process actually works — and why it sometimes goes wrong.
Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and US-legal; Polymarket is on-chain and global. The differences in liquidity, resolution sources, and available markets are bigger than they appear.
A plain-English guide to Polymarket — how shares are priced, what the percentages really mean, how resolution works, and the most common misreadings traders make.