Polymarket has Gavin Newsom at 26% for the 2028 Democratic nomination; AOC and Kamala Harris tied at 8%. The Newsom vs Harris 2028 poll gap explained.
Polymarket prices Harry Kane as the 2026 Ballon d'Or favorite at 40%, with Bayern teammate Michael Olise at 15.5%. Mbappé and Yamal trail. The World Cup is the wildcard.
Polymarket prices the chance China will invade Taiwan by end of 2026 at 7.5%, with $23M+ traded. The price curve and intelligence reads explained.
A practical guide to reading prediction-market prices: what a percentage means, how resolution works, what volume tells you, and the misreadings that cost real money.